Forex Trading

The Risk Today:

EurUsd After a brief look above 1.4291 to the next resistance at 1.4338, the pair fell back and closed the 4 hourly bar yesterday evening at 1.4289. This pattern has been repeated a couple more times overnight so there is plenty of supply at that level as mentioned yesterday. The medium term trend is still up, but there is a distinct 10 day downtrend on the 60 minute chart so expect a range bound consolidation period between 1.4240 and 1.4338 with 1.4178 providing major support and 1.4445 as major resistance. Only a break of 1.4034/51 would ruin this medium term uptrend and put the bears in control.

GbpUsd Rangebound behavior to continue for the pair between 1.6435 and 1.6663. Massive long attention expected should we make it down to 1.6381, confirmed a couple of days back with the queue jumping to 1.6391 in big size. A break there has 1.6272 as the final frontier before a swift 3 cent drop to 1.5947 but for now this trend remains up.

UsdJpy Well one can never claim that FX is not volatile enough but when a major pair is fighting between a 2 year downtrend it is to be expected. The pair is starting to look increasingly bearish with lower highs and lower lows being printed all day yesterday and it is likely there will be more analysis to come on USD JPY this afternoon. The stops below 95.16 have been triggered already this morning and there is another level at 94.78 that should put a floor under any damage for the time being. The bulls really need to clear 96.57 to make any sort of recovery but for the time being it looks like the 5 week uptrend is over and if this picture stays the same for much of the day then expect the pair to start attracting an army of short sellers with the Dec 08 - present uptrend not kicking in until 93.865

UsdChf 1.0692 and 1.0707 are looking like good long entry points with 10 day uptrend channel and a fairly decent support level. If there is an uptrend to be continued then the entry can not get much better than those levels with an initial target of the 4 day downtrend at 1.0764 / 77. Stops expected at 1.0670.